Since peak oil became an issue of public security, I mean since it became clear that it could turn out potentially desastrous, a new discipline arose. A growing number of academics tries to explain society as increasingly complex as a result of the abundance of cheap energy. The law of entropy applied in social science. Now the era of cheap oil seems to come to an end soon, the question is, what will happen to our highly globalised and integrated economy and social fabric? Especially high-tech industry is seen as vulnerable for “oil-shocks”. Will industry be downgraded in complexity and regionalised? What kind of technologies are likely to be candidate for such “ relocalisation”?

Let’s take the agri-food industry as an example. I will describe three steps in our history of agricultural development and food processing to illustrate the growing level of complexity. Then I assume that the level of energy availability and access will diminish but oil will still be available, although much more expensive. Further I assume that the economy will structurally show no or very feeble growth. On basis of my experience as rural development expert in developing countries, and as voluntary cook in the developed countries, I will speculate which food and food processing techniques will become attractive or necessary alternatives.


Middle ages

• Local food crops
• Local varieties
• Sylvo-Agro-Pastoralism as way to suppress weeds and supply of fertility to crop land
• Farm based food processing
• Food conservation based on drying, fermentation and salt
• Mainly consumption of local produce
• Variable food and food quality intake

Industrialisation period

• Introduction of global varieties (corn, potatoes, tomatoes, etc)
• Concentration on bulk food. Higher yielding wheat, abandonment of local grains (spelt)
• Deep labour as means to suppress weeds, and to profit from humus in deeper layers, general pesticides
• Local cooperatives
• Food conservation based on chemical food preservatives, powderisation, concentration
• Product sourcing mainly on regional scale
• Rise of protein intake, diminution of vitamins

Post/hyper modernity

• Domination of few GMO varieties, patent protected
• Protection of local varieties by special niche markets (“bio”) and public policies (“gene banks”)
• Specialised pesticides and fertilisers
• Multi-national companies
• Radiation, sterilisation, deep freeze, controlled atmosphere
• Ingredients from all over the planet
• Rise of carbohydrates intake, enriched food

I see essentially two highly complex systems in the agri-food industry that are (still) separated.
One is the crop variety – weed control – growth enhancers system (the production system), and the second is the food processing – assembling – distribution system (the food industry). They are still separated because there is still a large sector of farmers, although increasingly squeezed between the two, who are managing to achieve enormous scale advantages in their family businesses and thus resist to be swallowed by industry. The first industry, on the production side, is dominated by a few players in the chemical industry (Monsanto as the biggest), the second is dominated by a few players in the processing industry like Unilever. Upscaling is still possible in farming and food processing, and if the availability of cheap energy will pose no limit in this, a merge of the two industries and the further shrinking of family based farming is very likely.

From an economic and technical viewpoint the management of a few million hectares of cropland under one company that exploits, process and distribute the products is very feasible and fits in the logic of the post/hyper modern conditions. As long there is cheap energy, it is more economic to completely dis-assemble food to its basic molecules, and construct food with it into products that fits with or follows comsumer demand or its created phantasies. The basic molecules are carbohydrates, proteines and fatty acids. Mix them, add some flavour and salt, and you have a pizza, or a cake. The big advantage is that it doesn’t matter from which crops these molecules are coming from. The objective becomes not to produce as much crops per unit labour, but as much of those basic materials.  Fresh fruits, vegetables, cheese and meat will stay longest an exception on this tendency, as they are the hardest to artificially assemble like “real”.

The main factors for centralisation and globalisation of the agri-food industry are

1. Continuous reduction of labour costs or increased labour productivity
2. Continuous growth of needed capital for investment

In the last century, research & development for the agri-food industry has importantly shifted from publicly funded to privately funded, and are thus more or less integrated in the labour-productivity equation. Training of future employees ofcourse still heavily depends on public funding and is a key factor why the industry does not move directly to low wage / cheap natural resource countries. The transportation of the raw materials towards the processing industry and the final markets are a relatively minor expenditure in the production costs. Analysis of the last oil spike, showed that when the crude oil price tripled, average food prices rose 20% as a result of it.

Many studies show in general an immediate effect of an oil price spike on economic growth. Economic growth depends in the US for more than 70% on consumer demand. All “minor” price rises together, like in food, but especially in housing and transport, will force consumers to economise on luxury items like holidays, electronics, fashion cloths and family housing. This will slow down economy. One of the most profound effects of a stagnant economy is the lack of investment capital, like we have seen in the last years. Still, cheap food will remain one of the few sectors able to make profits, and therefor can re-invest. But in this case they need to invest not only in their own equipment and infrastructure but also take responsibility of the quality of their suppliers who might not doing so well. Machinery, means of transport, stockage, etc, AND THEIR suppliers of raw materials: metals, plastics, etc. It is clear that the production costs will not only rise because of oil, but also because of keeping unhealthy sectors alive, just for the sake of having the supply needed to keep the industry going.

At the same time the self-sufficiency production system that depends more on local resources, like own gardens and small scale, mixed, organic farming will likely become more affordable, as labour still is the largest production cost in this system, and labour will become cheaper when the economy is stagnant, and unemployment rises.

The conclusion for this part would be that in a stagnant economy with high oil prices, the trend towards globalised food systems will remain, food in general will be more expensive, but the price difference between globalised, monopolised food and local food production will become smaller, giving more opportunities to labour intensive food processing on smaller scale.  

The technology that will accompany such rise of local food chains, will have the image of the “weapons of the weak”. Especially the unemployed, the young, the old, etc., will be vulnerable to rising food prices, and will look for a supplement in local production. As investment for machinery will be scarce in a stagnant economy, the solutions for processing local food will therefor be simple, and small scale. Possibilities to upscale and improve “household methods” can be mainly found in communal kitchens and restaurants. In this case the ability to process large amounts of local surplus with lower prices, can compensate for the enormous difference of “professionality” with the globalised food industry.  Methods that do not require major investments are among the following:

• Cooling / Freezing : buying extra refrigerators / building extra basements
• Fermentation: upgrade wine production, make own cheese and yoghurt, lacto-ferment vegetables in large pots
• Make own basic ingredients: vinegar, mustard, mayonaise, fonds, etc.
• Marmelades: small scale jam making machinery
• Drying in air / construct a drying place for ovens

These kinds of activities will therefor not be a basis for new jobs, but are supplementary activies either on household or restaurant level, that will compensate for loss of income because of unemployment.
The most promosing methods of agricultural production in this context are “difficult to fail” systems, and autonomous with regards to soil fertility. In this respect I can mention the following:

• New orchards in streets and public spaces with clever pruning and harvest system
• Agroforestry systems with as much perennial or self seeding plants as possible
• Urban agriculture: Raised bed gardens with clever irrigation system and small scale composting like vermi-composting

Finally, means of transport that will allow to transport bulky products and compost, that doesn’t cost a lot of money, suitable for peri-urban environments:

• Transport bikes, bikes with cards, motorised or not
• Minitractors with card

Well, it is all not very revolutionary, it just shows the path that is already taken. The gap between haves and havenots is growing, and the gap between “developing” and “developed” world is closing!